ABSTRACT

Objective: The purpose of this study was to analyze the supply status of occupational therapists in long-term care and to forecast their supply and demand. Methods: As data regarding the supply status of occupational therapists in long-term care settings, we utilized data from the Annual Report on Health and Welfare Statistics of the Ministry of Health and Welfare and the National Health Insurance Corporation on occupational therapist activities (2008-2018). We used time-series data on trends in the supply of human resources for supply estimation and assumed that these trends will continue to be maintained. The sum total and average were then calculated through a technical statistical analysis. Results: The number of occupational therapists increased from 41 in 2008 to 758 in 2018. The average annual growth rate was 37.8%. The result of this study also showed that there will be an excess of supply compared to demand between 2020 and 2030. Conclusion: To provide high-quality services, it is necessary to solve the problem of imbalance between supply and demand of occupational therapist in long-term care services and make policy efforts for proper supply and management of personnel. If the direction of the human resource supply and demand policy of the government for occupational therapists in long-term care services has thus far focused on the quantitative supply of human resources, it will be necessary to expand it to include the qualitative management of human resources, such as improving the working environment, including low wages, allowing occupational therapists to enter the long-term care market and be successfully retained in the future.